Quantifying uncertainties in the modeling of lava flow hazards.

Del Negro C., Bilotta G., Cappello A., Ganci G., Herault A., Zago V.

IV - Geofisica e fisica dell'ambiente
Aula 32C-1 - Giovedì 20 h 09:00 - 13:00
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State-of-the-art is such that, today, we can provide satellite-sensor-derived source terms for use by physical lava flow models to allow timely and reliable inundation projections, forecasts and hazard assessments aimed at supporting emergency responses. However, the ability of these modeling efforts to support efficient and effective risk management is determined to a large degree by how well the propagation of uncertainty from input through the model to the output has been assessed. Characterizing uncertainties in the modeling of lava flow hazards will allow more confidence in the interpretation of simulations and the application of results for improved decision support systems.

Società Italiana di Fisica - Via Saragozza 12 40123 Bologna P.IVA 00308310374 | credits