From the Bayes theorem to a model of the geomagnetic interaction between strong earthquakes in the Indonesian archipelagoes and particle data detected by NOAA satellites.

Fidani C.

IV - Geofisica e fisica dell'ambiente
GSSI Ex ISEF - Aula D - Giovedì 26 h 09:00 - 12:30
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By analysing 16.5 years of NOAA particle data, a statistically significant correlation lasting 2--3 hours between electron bursts and large earthquakes, occurring before main shocks in Indonesia and the Philippines, has been reported. The conditional probability of an earthquake in Indonesia or the Philippines after an electron burst was detected by the NOAA-15 satellite is now increased by over 100%. The hypothesis for a possible geomagnetic interaction suggests that electron disturbances occur two hours before they are registered by the satellite. The Bayes theorem reverses the conditional probability (above) and calculates the probability of the hypothesis given the evidence.

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